Yes, the question which everyone asks which has little or no effect to them (unless they are a fanboy of course). I was debating whether or not to use the term ‘next-gen’, as all three players have shown there hand and have been out for several months and in the Wii Us case for a while longer. I will try to answer this question in terms of who I believe will accumulate the most sales, although we must remember sales do not mean quality otherwise Justin Bieber would be one of greatest musicians of his generation. Here goes.
Who’s winning so far?
Nintendo Wii U has a slender lead with 5 million sold worldwide, Ps4 has sold 3.4 million and the Xbox One is currently bringing up the rear with 2.5 million. We must consider though that the Wii U is fighting for a different audience than the other too and has been out a year longer. Still, there is nothing unexpected about these figures so far, I expected the PS4 to be slightly ahead due to the bad press Xbox had stemming from E3 last year and we all know the fate so far of the Wii U. (source VGChartz.com)
What I expect for 2014 from the consoles
First of all I expect a price fall from Microsoft, this will be to counter the lead Sony has taken and to make sure that gap is minimal. A lot will fall on what exclusive games the consoles have and there is little to choose from each side on first look. I expect Titanfall to be a big hitter for the Xbox One, whilst I expect Infamous: Second Son to be a major player for the PS4. I also expect a price cut on the Wii U where an article found here shows a cut to 99 euros in a Belgian stockist, which could sky rocket sales if was followed worldwide. Nintendo will be looking for their little red plumber to boost sales when Mario Kart 8 finally lands. You can read my most anticipated games of the upcoming year here.
What I expect for 2014 sales
My prediction based on what I’ve already covered is that Wii U will hit 10 million by the end of the year. This is will due to the almost certain price drop worldwide and they will probably bundle this with Mario Kart upon release. I think PS4 will outsell the Xbox One in all continents bar North America and will hold an overall lead of around 3-5 million by the end of the calendar year mainly due it’s dominance over its rival in Europe and Japan. The fact that the PS4 holds a lead without it even being released in Japan yet is particularly worrisome for Xbox, as its past failures there will undoubtedly see it make minimal effort.
In summary I expect this:
2. XBOX ONE
3. NINTENDO WII U
The only real thing that could change in my opinion is if Nintendo finally got off the ground and could attract back some of its previous customers. This is a tall order but not impossible, a lot of the youth and families that loved the Wii now play games on their mobile phone or Ipad. Luckily for them the 3DS is a huge success so they have time to try to outwit their rivals which is a real possibility given their track record.
Xbox needs to focus on what they’re good at, which is online play and FPS exclusives. Sure, Gears Of War and Halo were system sellers of their time but have gone somewhat stale and sales have reflected this. They need brand spanking, new FPS games that will cause the same type of stir and excitement of the two I just mentioned. This could see a huge rise in European and North American sales.
PS4 needs to keep making sure they release quality single player games, something in which they excel at. In fact, they just need to keep doing what they’re doing as the others have slipped up so far. It’s not what Sony has done which has seen their early dominance, it’s just they haven’t done anything wrong. They don’t need to make risky decisions but obviously need to continue the quality in the franchises like Uncharted and The Last Of Us. Infact, just keeping Naughty Dog sweet may suffice!
Who do YOU think will win? Let me know!